Tuesday, December 20, 2016
It’s time, says the expert, to step back and take a look at the role of natural gas.
Electricity demand shifts up or down in a heartbeat, or considerably faster. The hardware that supplies power generally changes slowly, because power plants and transmission lines take years to plan and build. Those two considerations are balanced by an expert organization called the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. NERC looks ahead a decade and projects whether the system will have enough “reserve margin.” That is, will it be able to produce as much power as consumers will demand.
But this year NERC, as it is known, shifted gears. Yes, it raised questions about the adequacy of generating capacity in some regions in the next decade, but it also took notice of a different problem: a huge fraction of that generating capacity uses a single fuel, and that fuel is generally delivered on a just-in-time basis. And that makes the power grid vulnerable.
NERC’s 2016 Long Term Reliability Assessment focuses heavily on natural gas. Gas-fired plants can be built quickly and are relatively inexpensive, and face fewer environmental constraints than coal. They can increase or decrease production rapidly, too, which is becoming more important as intermittent renewables like wind and sun are added to the grid. And for the next few years at least, the price of natural gas is low.
One result is that in New England, by 2021 generators running on natural gas will comprise more than half the capacity required at peak periods. New England has been hit hard by pipeline congestion during cold snaps. In Florida, the figure will be 69 percent. Florida has faced supply crunches because of hurricanes.
Around the country, natural gas is supplanting coal. Each form of electricity generation has various positive attributes to take into consideration, and natural gas has many, but fuel security isn’t one of them. Mostly the fuel goes straight from the pipeline to the burner. In contrast, one of coal’s advantages is that storing enough to run the plant for the next month is easy, or even common.
As the system tilts toward gas, then a single disruption, like the loss of a storage facility or pipeline or processing plant, can jeopardize the reserve margin, FERC said. “For example, the Aliso Canyon outage in Southern California illustrates the effects of a potential single point of disruption,” said the report. “This one underground gas storage facility in SoCal Gas’ service territory contains 86 BCF of gas capacity, providing fuel to approximately 9,800 MWs of electric generation. The facility also supports ramping requirements to accommodate the variability of renewable energy resources,’’ said the report. Ramping means the ability to increase or decrease generation, which is needed to compensate for the variability of wind and sun.
NERC continued, “This outage has the potential to cause rolling black outs in Southern California until the facility is completely operational again or other mitigation approaches have been employed.”
Earlier this year, NERC warned, “The challenges faced in California represent a series of risks that have been layered into the system over the past decade.” Those included more reliance on gas, a just-in-time delivery fuel source, to meet demand and as a partner with wind and sun, because if gas plants ramp up and down, or raise and lower their output quickly, as those intermittent renewables require.
The problem is that electricity generating plants that run on natural gas quickly change their level of demand for fuel, but the gas pipeline system was not built with such fast demand swings in mind.
NERC isn’t the first to observe a growing vulnerability, but it may be the most authoritative. The organization was founded as the North American Electric Reliability Council after the 1965 blackout, which stretched from New York into Canada. After the 2003 blackout that ran from Detroit to New York, NERC changed the last word in its name to Corporation, from Council, and was designated by the federal government to police the system, setting standards of conduct for parties doing business on the high-voltage grid and imposing fines on violators. But as it did before the change into an enforcement body, NERC expends a great deal of careful effort on planning.
Fuel diversity is an odd kind of problem. It can be taken into account in areas of the country that are traditionally regulated, where a public service commission passes judgment on proposals by investor-owned utilities, about what to build and what to retire. But in areas where there is a market system for electricity, companies are paid for energy, for providing capacity, and for several obscure-but-important ancillary functions like keeping the alternating current at precisely 60 cycles, or maintaining voltage. New England has dabbled with market mechanisms that seek to compensate the owners of natural gas-fired plants for maintaining a backup supply of oil, but this has not solved the problem.
One of the benefits that nuclear plants provide is diversity. Another is fuel security; most plants are refueled once every 18 months or every 2 years. At those plants, the threat of running out of fuel is like the threat of going hungry when holding a picnic lunch in a supermarket. Everything you need for an extended period is already at hand.
New England lost one nuclear plant, Vermont Yankee, two years ago this month, and it is scheduled to lose another, Pilgrim, in 2019. Vermont Yankee was replaced mostly with natural gas. The six-state region is trying to add more wind, and more links to Canadian hydroelectricity, but yet more natural gas is likely.
Tuesday, December 13, 2016
Earlier today, the Wall Street Journal published a story concerning manufacturing records and forgings at AREVA’s Le Creusot forge in France. A very limited number of U.S. facilities are using components forged at Le Creusot.
After an investigation by AREVA in coordination with the affected plants, it was determined that the components were safe and met required quality standards. Additionally, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to date has not identified any safety significance at U.S. plants, stating, “examination of the evidence, to this point, fails to raise a safety concern.”
Here's more from AREVA:
Significant progress has been made on both investigations, including the identification of components that may have been affected in the United States, and the review and verification of the quality and safety of those components.U.S. nuclear plants are built and operated with a defense in depth approach that ensures plant safety is maintained at all times. When it comes to safety-related components at U.S. nuclear power plants, the industry’s quality assurance programs are rigorous all the way from manufacturing to installation and operation. These components are also routinely monitored and inspected before, during and after they’ve been installed to assure that their performance is not compromised.
AREVA contacted the U.S. utilities that may have had affected components and, after completing the U.S. evaluations, followed up with component status confirmations to its U.S. utility customers regarding both investigations.
Friday, December 09, 2016
“Americans will benefit immensely from the incoming administration’s focus on existing nuclear generating plants as part of maintaining and improving our nation’s critical infrastructure. Federal and state leaders must act urgently to preserve at-risk nuclear energy facilities, just like lawmakers and agency officials in Illinois and New York have done, to help achieve a stronger economy, cleaner air and enhanced energy diversity and security. Thanks to the actions taken recently in Illinois and New York, thousands of jobs have been saved and consumers will be spared the cost of replacing the carbon-free electricity generation reliably provided by nuclear power plants central to their infrastructure.
“Those tailored state solutions – welcome as they are – are only a bridging strategy to the broader electric market fixes that are needed to properly value nuclear energy’s benefits. As bitterly cold weather descends on much of the nation, it is a good time to remember that, beyond their around-the-clock generation of emission-free electricity, nuclear energy facilities ensure that electricity is available for all Americans by having their fuel supplies already on site inside the reactor core to ensure that lights stay on and homes are heated in extreme weather conditions.
Thursday, December 08, 2016
"But the market does not value the plant for providing any of those benefits. Nuclear plants are operated by corporations, with an eye on the bottom line. What is not paid for does not endure. Governor Rick Snyder called it 'a major employer and economic engine for the region.' We hope that some other source of employment will follow on that spot, on the sand dunes of Lake Michigan, and that it will be as quiet, safe and clean."
Posted by Web at 4:16 PM
Wednesday, December 07, 2016
It's a great day in Illinois, as Gov. Bruce Rauner has signed the Future Energy Jobs bill at a ceremony at Quad Cities nuclear plant. With his signature, Gov. Rauner has helped save over 4,200 jobs at the Quad Cities and Clinton nuclear power plants.
Watch the video below.
Next, the governor is headed to the Clinton nuclear power plant for a second rally. For more on how support for the bill came together, read this blog post from our Matt Wald.
Posted by Web at 1:59 PM
So how do those programs measure up? In October 2015, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security published an unclassified version of a report that analyzed cyber security in the broader U.S. nuclear sector, including radioactive materials and waste facilities. The report concluded that the sector's programs, “combined with the industry’s exacting standards and culture of back-up safety systems, will make it extremely difficult for an external adversary to cause a radioactive release.”
Friday, December 02, 2016
Building consensus is hard work, especially in energy policy. But when local governments, organized labor, environmental organizations and energy providers all come together, they can create a positive future for everyone. That’s what happened this week in the Illinois legislature in Springfield.
The legislature, in a special session, approved the Future Energy Jobs Bill, with strong bipartisan support. Governor Rauner pointed out in a statement that the bill will save thousands of jobs, and will protect ratepayers from large increases for years to come. With this law, Illinois follows New York in recognizing that like wind and sun, nuclear is a zero-carbon energy source and should be valued as such.
The bill went through many twists and turns over two years. Negotiations over its shape were long and hard partly because of the diverse list of parties involved. We hope it will be a model going forward, around the country.
Environmental Progress, led by Michael Shellenberger, rallied pro-nuclear environmentalists in Illinois and around the country in support of the bill. The Union of Concerned Scientists pointed out that the bill had the potential to improve the state’s efforts in efficiency and renewable energy. The Environmental Defense Fund listed similar reasons for joining the consensus behind the bill. The Natural Resources Defense Council and the Sierra Club also came on board.
And there was strong support from organized labor. Saving Clinton and Quad Cities protects over 4,000 employees, many of them represented by the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, United Association of Plumbers and Pipe Fitters, Iron Workers, Sheet Metal Workers, Carpenters, Boilermakers, the Building Trades and the AFL-CIO.
As Governor Rauner put it, “This process shows that when all parties are willing to negotiate in good faith, we can find agreement and move our state forward." We hope that he is heard in other state capitols, and in Washington.